Researcher and strategic expert Kamal Al-Jaffa confirmed in an interview with “Al-Watan” that the terrorist organization Al-Nusra Front and its allies launched a military operation towards the areas of the Syrian Arab Army and the areas safe residential areas, and at such a moment is equivalent to a “military and political suicide” for the terrorist organization, indicating that all efforts The meetings and statements issued by the Turkish administration indicate that the Turkish side opposes this step and does not has no interest in opening “de-escalation” fronts and Al-Jaffa has not ruled out that the terrorist organization will resort to launching a “spectacular” military operation to preserve its reputation before its regional and international supporters, from the “Agreement of Moscow” in early March 2020.

Below is the text of the dialogue:

• Since when did Tahrir al-Sham’s preparations to launch an attack on the Syrian Arab Army’s areas begin, and where have they reached now?

Tahrir al-Sham’s ongoing training and rehabilitation operations and the accumulation of power factors are not linked to the threats that we have heard in recent weeks and which are linked to regional factors related to Gaza or rather to what is happening in Lebanon, this is a continuous and accumulated process, linked to internal factors experienced by the group and its leader, “Abu Muhammad al-Julani”, more than it is currently linked to external threats or dangers that threaten the borders of its emirate, and that Al-. Julani and his comrades have finalized preparations to fight a multi-front battle spanning a large area, believing that they are capable of causing a breach on more than one axis, especially on the axis of the international road from the point of Al – Zarba. – Afes-Saraqib, where the contact lines are close and parallel to the international road and an open plain area with no natural obstacles or natural fortifications separating the two front lines.

• What are the axes of the planned fronts, their geographical nature and their situation on the ground?

There are two main axes. The first concerns the regions of northern Aleppo and the north-west of the northern countryside, which is under Turkish control, and on the opposite axis includes the regions of Jarabulus, Qabasin, Mare’, Azaz and Afrin. corresponds to Manbij, Tal Rifaat and some sectors directly with the Syrian army.

The second are the areas or fronts whose control and leadership on the ground are entirely under the control of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, starting from the western countryside of Aleppo and Kafr Ta’al, then Kafr Nuran and Maarat al- Na’asan, up to Taftanaz, then al-Bara and Kansafra, and then Safuhan, which are areas located in Jabal al-Zawiya overlooking the Al-Ghab plain.

What is expected, and according to the follow-up on the ground and what is happening on the ground, we note that the battle that “Al-Julani” is planning is the operational sector in the western countryside of Aleppo, so Urum al-Kubra, Urum al-Sughra, then Sheikh Ali, then Kafr Halab and Talhiya, up to Saraqeb, then the battle front heads towards Dadikh Kafr Batikh and Al-Ruwayhiyah, then Maarat Al-Numan, then Kafr Nubl, arriving in Al-Malajah . in Jabal Al-Zawiya which dominates the Al-Ghab plain.

• Who are Tahrir al-Sham’s partners in the alleged upcoming battle?

In previous years, “Tahrir al-Sham” relied on a broad alliance that included most of the active military organizations on the ground, called “Al-Fath al-Mubin Operations Room”. This alliance consists of the main grassroots forces such as “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham”, the “National Liberation Front” and “Jaysh al-Izza”. And a number of other small factions sometimes expanded and sometimes partially contracted, and did not witness massive splits or collapses, but remained a transitional direction and field formation rather than a general staff possessing absolute authority and leadership, and the regional and international alliances played a lot in it, and as an example of this the “party” rejected Turkestan The “Islamic Party” joined this battle at the request of Turkey, even though it is the central strike force and the most trained and armed among other local factions. Furthermore, some Turkmen factions, at Turkey’s request, refused to join it. “Tahrir al-Sham” defines the great battle for the return of the displaced people from the north, who returned to their areas after the failure of all the initiatives and solutions that they expected from the countries that supported them.

• What is the state of preparation of the Syrian Arab Army, its mobilizations and its dispositions on the various fronts, in particular west of Aleppo?

In recent weeks, there has been careful monitoring of all field movements carried out by the Al-Fath Al-Mubin operations room, and compared to previous battles and plans that the Authority has followed in its battles with the Army Syrian Arab, we have not seen real preparations on the ground, but despite all these rumors, and despite all the noise around the plans of the HTS and the opposition factions, embodied in a great media outpouring and in some military convoys moving on multiple combat fronts, they were soon withdrawn to other fronts with the displacement campaign carried out by the HTS security forces to evacuate the villages and towns on the border, i.e. the contact lines. According to some sources, the HTS will rely on the formation of the Red Bands using Inghamis and in times that will surprise everyone, but on the ground and militarily these preparations require logistical support forces and the movement of vehicles, tanks, four-wheel drive vehicles and possibly explosives that the HTS may have prepared for this battle.

From my point of view, this is a more than realistic major propaganda operation, the aim of which is to draw attention to it and its importance as a control force on the ground, to attract the attention of those who are influential in the Syrian dossier after the escalation of positive Turkish statements on the need for an agreement and rapprochement with the Syrian state, without these forces having any role or coordination with the Turkish or Syrian side and their role in this agreement or reconciliation , if it occurs.

Regarding the preparations made by the Syrian Arab Army and the transfer of large forces to the assault groups on the front lines and battlefields, they indicate that the Syrian leadership has made the decision to liberate, advance and eliminate these areas from control of these groups, and not to prevent them from launching any attack on the areas or fronts they consider space. The operations of “Al-Fatah Al-Mubin” are soft and capable of causing a breach, in particular the Saraqeb-Afes axis or the western one. Aleppo campaign.

• Why choose Aleppo at this time?

Choosing the city of Aleppo for its weight, the industrial and commercial value it represents and the important agricultural areas, which is a dream they had many times because they believed that Turkey had failed them when it signed the truce and the “de-escalation” agreements ” , which forced them in the face of attacks by the Syrian Arab Army to retreat to the regions of Idlib, above all because the composition of the population in Idlib is bellicose, heterogeneous and incompatible with everything, perhaps reoccupying Aleppo, their areas of control , which are considered the most densely populated in the world, will expand and perhaps open a new divisive project that is consistent with American and Western desires and will exert increasing pressure on the Syrian state, reduce its area of ​​control and connect countries The “Julani” areas ” with some of them are what pushes him to control areas of Turkish influence in the areas of the interim government.

• Is the Erdogan administration’s position sincere and serious in opposing the Tahrir al-Sham attack, and what measures has it taken to prevent it?

So far it is unclear whether the Erdogan administration is evading or pandering to “Al-Julani” in preventing him from carrying out this attack as he claims, and all efforts, meetings and statements issued by the Turkish administration indicate that the Turkish side is opposes this step and will try to prevent it, and if the “HTS” carries out an attack, it will not be tolerated. With Turkish approval, Turkey does not undertake to violate all understandings and agreements regarding “de-escalation” areas.

Last Friday, Turkish intelligence conveyed a message to Al-Julani that if he ventured to carry out a large-scale attack on any area within the “de-escalation” areas, he would not commit to stopping the the Syrian army or to prevent it from advancing. to any areas controlled by the “HTS”, and it is clear that now that there is no Turkish interest or desire to open or move these fronts, and Turkey can cause complete paralysis of all systems or components of life in the areas “Julani” , I don’t think he will take a reckless step, contradicting Turkey, and opening this battle that could make him lose areas and areas of control, and this is considered military and political suicide, and we should not forget all the wars that the Syrian opposition fought against the Syrian army had regional and international coverage, and this is not currently available.

• What response is expected from Moscow if the attack begins, and what is the role of the Russian Air Force?

Three days ago, before the start of any attack, and through subsequent reconnaissance field checks carried out by Al-Julani and his group, Russian aircraft began carrying out large-scale attacks on sites, centers and headquarters that they had recently attended rallies. , reinforcements and rear supply lines for any upcoming battle. The raids also included training camps that were being prepared to train new elite groups, notably the “Emigrant Cubes” and the “Red Bands”, which Al-Julani would command. rely on the possible start of a military operation.

• What will happen to “de-escalation” agreements in the event of this military action?

It is natural that all the “de-escalation” agreements are considered expired, because the skirmishes and attacks carried out by “Al-Julani” and his allies against the positions of the Syrian army have kept all parties busy, in light of the Turkish role that sometimes exerts pressure and sometimes supports these factions, the front lines have not been changed or the limits of control for all sides, so that the Syrian and Russian sides have always been committed to the literal implementation of these understandings , and indeed. that Al-Julani and his allies start the military operation, it means that everyone is free from these agreements, both Syria and Russia, and Turkey will also be free from its command to protect the limits of these terrorist groups.

• Do you expect the attack to be launched and what prevents it from being carried out?

Perhaps the leader of Al-Nusra intends to open a farce battle rather than a real one, because the Syrian army has mobilized its elite forces, strengthened the front lines and transferred heavy equipment, rocket launchers, tanks and assault forces, and not to stabilize or strengthen the front lines, but rather to transport special assault forces that had previously participated in the liberation of many Syrian regions and possess the field and operational experience to invade the region, this requires only a political decision, and perhaps Russian pre-emptive strikes are a way out. for Al-Julani to retreat from this attack.